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Big Brother 12 – A Strategic Overview of Week Five

It took five weeks for the power couple, Rachel and Brendon, to be broken up. This week, Matt won his second HOH and decided to finally appease the rest of the house and put Rachel and Brendon up for eviction. Matt also got the opportunity to open Pandora’s box, which unleashed Ragan as the new Saboteur in addition to granting Matt the diamond power of veto, a power that can be used to replace any nomination once during the next two weeks.

After Britney won the POV competition and decided to keep the nominations the same, the fighting began. Brendon made it his mission to save Rachel, by getting himself evicted. It started with Brendon verbally attacking Britney at the POV ceremony. Later, Ragan got into an argument with Rachel, which was shortly followed by an argument with Brendon, which ended with Britney getting involved, shouting and making fun of Brendon. Despite all the chaos, none of the houseguests changed their minds as Rachel was evicted in a 6-0 vote making her the first member of the jury.

What was Rachel’s downfall? Does Brendon have a chance by himself? How much longer can the Brigade stay intact? And, as always, where do the players stand strategically?

We all knew this was coming. Rachel and Brendon isolated themselves from the rest of the house the very first week. It’s a miracle they made it this far together. Unfortunately, Brendon’s plan to sacrifice himself backfired as the houseguests preferred to keep the player willing to leave and evict the one who wanted to stay. What they should have realized is that players act in their own best interest. Someone who is fighting to stay in the game is a bigger threat.

Once again, he needs to win to stay in the house this week. His social game has been so bad that his only chance is to win competitions. Even if he manages to win enough to make it to the end, he has upset so many people in the house that his chances of winning are zero. All he needs to do now is convince the other houseguests of this, and he just might stay awhile.

Britney may have ruined her game this week. Blowing up on Brendon was a huge mistake. Not only will it be bad for her if he wins HOH, but eventually he is going to be a jury vote that Britney will never get.

Enzo (aka Meow Meow)
I continue to believe Enzo is in the best position. He is playing strategically, the best social game of anyone. He may not win any competitions, but he doesn’t have to because he’s friendly with everyone inside the house.

I believe Hayden has done a good job of earning his trust back with the Brigade. In fact, I think he is in a better position than Matt within the alliance. He should be careful about playing both sides, though, because if he gets caught it could be game over.

I have a feeling that Kathy is going to be in the game for quite awhile. She’s so little of a threat that no one wants to waste the energy to get her out. Kathy has become the “sucker” of Big Brother 12. And, like Jameka in season 8, Shelia in season 9, and Jerry in season 10, Kathy will be carried deep into the game before being thrown into the trash. I would like to point out that the one exception to this was last season when Jordan was carried to the end and won. Kathy, however, will not win.

Lane didn’t do much this week, but that’s exactly what he should be doing. When players are self-destructing all around him, he just needs to stand on the sidelines smiling his way to the half million-dollar prize.

Matt did a good job this week of finally nominating Brendon and Rachel. I also agree with his decision to open Pandora’s box. Matt’s new power, the diamond power of veto, makes next week very interesting. Now it might be too early for this, but I’m getting the feeling that Matt is the weak link in the Brigade alliance, meaning he’ll be the first one they decide to turn on. It’s worth thinking about turning on the Brigade alliance before they can turn on him. Besides, with the power to put up anyone he wants, this may be his best chance. He needs to stick with Ragan, who is much more loyal than the Brigade will ever be.

Like Britney, Ragan severely damaged his game this week. He let his emotions get in the way and created an enemy out of someone he knew was staying in the house.

Question of the Week
Is Ragan seriously getting $20,000 for making irrelevant videos and passing them off as sabotage? Season of Sabotage? This stupid twist is sabotaging the show.

I’ll be back next week with some more strategic musings.

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