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Big Brother 11 – A Strategic Overview of Week Nine

The season is wrapping up, and with less than a week left to play, winning is everything. After a close POV competition, Kevin ended up on top, becoming the sole vote for eviction this week, choosing to evicting Michele over Jordan. Then, he continued his winning streak by winning the first part of the HOH competition after convincing Natalie to drop out. Natalie, putting all her hope in the second HOH competition, lost to Jordan during Thursday’s live show, probably giving her second thoughts about letting Kevin win the first one. Her fate is now out of her hands. On Tuesday, Kevin and Jordan will face off in the final HOH competition; the winner will select whom they want to take with them to the final two. The jury will then question them, and a winner will be selected.

Will Kevin betray Natalie and take Jordan to the final two? Or will Jordan take Natalie and possibly win it all? And where do the players stand strategically?

Jordan is in the best position she could possibly be at this point. She is in the final three with the crumbling alliance of Natalie and Kevin. Now it would be much more impressive if Jordan was the one causing their alliance to fall apart, but it seems that she is just getting lucky. As I see it, she is still looking good for the final two. And she has a much better shot now that America is casting a vote. Her best shot is against Natalie, who the jury now hates; but she doesn’t know this and could very easily pick Kevin instead.

Kevin is the clear-cut winner in my eyes. He has made the right strategic moves and won competitions when he needed to. It was smart distracting Jordan, by telling her to shake her body to warm up. But his best move of the week came when he convinced Natalie to give up part one of the HOH competition. He told her that if it came down to the two of them, she should let him win because she would have a better chance of beating Jordan in the second HOH competition. Since Natalie will never deny that she’s a better competitor than someone, even if it’s clearly not true, she was easier to manipulate.

If Kevin wins the final HOH, which is the most likely scenario, he says that he’ll pick Jordan. Honestly, I think he could beat Jordan or Natalie in the finals, but I do think he would have a better shot against Natalie. The jury seems to hate her, but, once again, this is information that he doesn’t have. The only way I see Kevin losing is if Jordan wins the final HOH and decides to take Natalie. Other than that, he’s pretty much set.

She had a nice run in the game, making it far considering she never had any consistent alliances. She won the key POV competition against Jeff, which was critical, but she lost the next one to Kevin. You can’t win Big Brother through the POV competitions. She should have had a backup plan in place, and that was just one of many problems Michele had in the game.

Another problem was her unwillingness to lie. In week three, Jessie and Natalie asked her if she would put them up if she won HOH. Any smart player would say no, but not Michele. She talked around the question without really giving them a straight answer. And what happened? She was put on the block. It would have been so simple, so easy just to tell them that she was not targeting them, but instead Michele risked everything.

I honestly think Michele could have made it through this week. She should have made a deal with Kevin before the POV competition. After he won, it was really too late. It became obvious that she was only trying to align with him because he won.

She’s just too reckless. She doesn’t think about her actions and how they will affect her in the game. She thinks she’s smart, but if she just thought a little harder she might realize her calculations are slightly off. She gave up competing in the POV to spend some time with her boyfriend (now her fiancée). This was a stupid move to begin with, and the fact that she lied about it made it even worse. Kevin was already having trust issues with her, but this may have just sealed her fate.

Question of the Week
How do these houseguests not realize Natalie is lying about her age? People who are eighteen do not continuously refer to themselves in the third person as an eighteen year old.

So how will these strategies pan out? Stay tuned to find out. I’ll be back next week with some more strategic musings.

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