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Big Brother 11 – A Strategic Overview of Week Eight

So just a week after he betrayed Russell, Jeff “got got.”  After trusting Natalie and Kevin, Jeff found himself on the block with his only chance being the power of veto.  And when Michele won instead, his game was virtually over.  Whenever anyone is on the block against Jordan, he or she is going home; no one is less of a threat than Jordan.  So now that Jeff is gone, Michele and Jordan are the only ones remaining from their once powerhouse alliance.  Natalie and Kevin have slowly but surely taken them down and put themselves in a position of control.  But can they be stopped?  

Will Natalie and Kevin make it to the end?  Or will Michele and Jordan spoil their plans?  And where do the players stand strategically?

He played a good game, but just not good enough.  He also had luck help him through the entire season, but on Thursday his luck ran out.  In the early stages of the game, Jeff was hated.  Luckily for him, he was hated by the same people who weren’t allowed to nominate him for eviction. And after the cliques were split, the Coup D’Etat helped carry him into the latter stages of the game.  Without it, there would be no alliance of Jeff, Jordan, Michele, and Russell.  His game was practically handed to him on a silver platter.  He made some good strategic moves, but he also made some errors, and in the end the errors just caught up with him.

It could have been a game ending mistake when Jeff threw the HOH competition to Russell in week four.  Jeff had no reason to trust that Russell wouldn’t nominate him.  They were clearly enemies, and this was the first week you could nominate someone from your own clique.  I don’t know what Jeff was thinking, but somehow it ended up working out.

In week six Jeff and Jordan targeted Lydia when they should have been targeting Kevin, clearly the strongest competitor from the opposing alliance.  Instead they evicted Lydia because she got on their nerves.  This, to me, was the game changing decision.  This was his demise.

What will she do without Jeff?  Will she discover an inner drive, an inner passion that will propel her to strategically maneuver herself in a position to win a half million dollars.  Probably not.  She will most likely believe whatever anyone tells her and continue to make no effort to hide her loyalties which will be enough for her to make it to the final three, maybe even the final two, but not to win this game.

First Russell, now Jeff, Kevin has helped knock out the power players until he himself has become one.  While he has played a very well thought out game, he now finds himself in great danger for the first time this week. With Natalie as HOH, winning the veto is Kevin’s only chance of staying in this game.  And if he makes it past this week, he’s going to have to start thinking about taking Jordan with him to the final two, instead of Natalie. 

Now with Jeff gone, she can partner up with Jordan, but even this may not be enough to save her.  Normally, I just try to focus solely on what was featured on the show, but watching her talk to Jeff on Showtime After Dark, I saw firsthand her inability to properly strategize.  It was obvious that both she and Jeff hadn’t even realized the HOH’s powerlessness this week. They kept talking about offering Natalie or Kevin safety if they win HOH.  Only the veto winner decides who goes home.  It wasn’t until Kevin told her, that Michele realized this.  Her lack of foresight will be her undoing.  Like I’ve said before, she’s smart, but she’s not Big Brother smart.

She finally won a competition when it mattered most.  Good for her.  The biggest concern on her mind now should be who she would rather be in the finals with, Kevin or Jordan.  Kevin has many enemies in the jury house, but he has played the best game.  Jordan hasn’t really betrayed anyone, but her game has been virtually nonexistent.  It’s a tough call.  I think her best bet is with Kevin because they made many of the same decisions, but Natalie did it behind the scenes, without upsetting anyone.

Question of the Week
Why did Kevin make it seem like it was such a hard decision to release the money?  He may not have known what was going to happen with the money, but ten thousand dollars somewhere is better than ten thousand dollars nowhere.  Big Brother knew it.  He knew it.  And what would have happened if he decided not to release it, anyway?  That would have been a boring episode.

So how will these strategies pan out?  Stay tuned to find out.  I’ll be back next week with some more strategic musings.  

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