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Big Brother 11 – A Strategic Overview of Week Seven

So they finally evicted Russell. After weeks of terrorizing the house, Russell has fought his last fight. Jeff, trusting Kevin and Natalie maybe a little more than he should have, used the power of veto to take Kevin off the block and backdoor Russell, as he was voted out in a 3-0 vote on Thursday, being the first person to be unanimously voted off. And now that we’re down to the final five, all bets are off. Nobody should trust anybody, because this is the point in the game where anything goes. It’s about doing what’s best for you no matter what deals or alliances have been made. No one is safe.

So now that the game is at a place where anything can happen, how will the tide turn? Who will betray whom? And where do the players stand strategically?

Getting rid of Russell was a good move, but at this point in the game Jeff has become such a big threat that anyone left in the game should being going after him. And if Jeff thinks he’s safe with Kevin and Natalie, he’s got another thing coming. If Jeff leaves this week, though, it will not be because he betrayed Russell. It will be because he and Jordan evicted Lydia when they should have gone after Kevin. When you don’t know who to trust, keep the weak and get rid of the strong. This way, even if you can’t trust the people remaining in the house, at least you know you can beat them.

She needs to start playing her own game. (See Jeff for more details)

He has played a great game, maybe even the best one this season. He played under the radar in the beginning, and over the past few weeks he has come alive, making good strategic moves to keep his alliance in the game. Russell’s eviction this week was huge for him and Natalie. They have turned the tide of this game, and if he can get Jeff out this week he will be in control of the game.

If she’s smart, (and I believe she is) she’ll align with Kevin and Natalie to get rid of Jeff. Then she can re-align herself with Jordan as they enter the final four. It’s the best move for her at this point in the game. With Russell’s eviction, she lost her closest ally, but if Jordan also loses her closest ally they will have to join forces out of necessity.

Like Jordan, Natalie has made it this far by riding coattails and doing poorly in competitions. If she hopes to have a chance at winning, she is going to have to start playing for herself. How many competitions has Natalie predicted she would win? Most of them. How many has Natalie actually won? None. The time to step up her game is now. Saying and doing is the difference between final four and final two.

I hate it when nominees spend all their time starting fights instead of thinking of ways to stay in the house. After Russell was put on the block it wasn’t looking good, but it wasn’t hopeless. If Russell had only spent a little more time strategizing, he could have gotten the votes to stay. Even if Kevin wasn’t receptive to keeping Russell, he could have formed a plan with Michelle to trick Kevin into evicting Natalie. How would this have worked? Well, they would have to find a way to plant the idea in Kevin’s head without being too obvious, but they would want to make him think of voting to evict Natalie to further isolate Michele from Jeff and Jordan. Because if the vote was 2-1 to evict Russell, everyone would assume that Michele voted to keep Russell in the house, thereby betraying Jeff and Jordan. Little would Kevin know, Michele would also vote this way, causing a 2-1 vote to evict Natalie. Was this a long shot? Yes. But was it better than going around yelling at everyone? Definitely.

Question of the Week
Why do Big Brother contestants always seems to be under the false impression that getting into pointless arguments helps you get further in the game? Just because past houseguests like Evel Dick got into fights doesn’t mean it helped their game. I assure you, Evel Dick didn’t win because of the fights. In fact, he won despite them.

So how will these strategies pan out? Stay tuned to find out. I’ll be back next week with some more strategic musings.

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